美联储降息如期而至，为何黄金还大跌？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points has significant implications for the gold market, leading to a notable drop in gold prices shortly after the announcement [1][13]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The spot price of London gold reached a historic high of over $3700 per ounce on September 17, prior to the Fed's announcement [2]. - The three main factors influencing gold prices are: 1) hedging against the dollar's credit system, 2) the global central bank gold purchasing trend, and 3) the accumulation of risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions and economic instability [3][21][30]. - The recent rise in gold prices from late August to mid-September was primarily driven by market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut [10][11]. Group 2: Interest Rate Impact - A reduction in interest rates decreases the attractiveness of the dollar, leading to a decline in global capital inflow into dollar-denominated assets [6][7]. - The market had already priced in the 25 basis point cut, resulting in a normal price correction for gold following the announcement [13][14]. Group 3: Central Bank Behavior - As of mid-September, global central bank reserves of gold surpassed those of U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996, indicating a significant shift in asset allocation [25][26]. - The ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold is a key driver of the current gold market dynamics [24]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Recent geopolitical events, such as conflicts in the Middle East and concerns over U.S. government shutdowns, have contributed to fluctuations in gold prices [17][18][27]. - The interplay between U.S. monetary policy and global economic conditions remains a critical factor in determining gold's future trajectory [22][32].