邓正红能源软实力：石油地缘博弈正重塑全球能源规则 油价终将回归市场基本面

Core Insights - The geopolitical dynamics surrounding oil are reshaping global energy rules, with political blockades increasing the geopolitical premium by $7 to $9 per barrel, while price wars have resulted in Russia losing 4.24 trillion rubles [1][3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Pricing - The current geopolitical contradictions in the oil market reflect the core logic of "resource potential transforming into behavioral effectiveness," highlighting the geopolitical influence of strategic resources like oil [2][3]. - Political blockades have emphasized the soft power value of oil, as the U.S. calls for European nations to stop purchasing Russian oil, leading to an 80% reduction in imports from Russia [3][4]. - Price suppression strategies are aimed at weakening Russia's energy revenue, with a reported 14.4% year-on-year decline in Russia's oil and gas income for the first five months of 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Current State of Russian Oil Trade - Russia's oil export volume is projected at 7.043 million barrels per day in 2024, making it the second-largest exporter globally, but its revenue is expected to decline significantly due to geopolitical tensions [4]. - European countries have reduced direct imports of Russian oil by 80%, yet some nations continue to rely on Russian oil through third-party countries like India and Turkey, creating loopholes in sanctions [4]. - The dynamics of supply and demand are shifting, with OPEC increasing production while U.S. production faces challenges, leading to a downward adjustment in global oil demand growth expectations [4]. Group 3: Implications of Trump's Policies - Trump's policies link energy trade directly to the resolution of the Ukraine conflict, threatening to impose 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, which may exacerbate divisions within NATO [5]. - The strategy of "deterrent soft power" may backfire, potentially increasing the costs of global energy transitions and reshaping the energy power structure [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are part of a broader process of reconstructing "rule networks," with short-term political blockades and price suppression expected to persist [5].