Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-21 16:43Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates for the first time in 2025 has led to a rally in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, marking three consecutive weeks of gains [1][4] - Despite the positive market performance, there was a significant outflow of over $40 billion from U.S. equity funds, the highest since December of the previous year, indicating concerns over valuation [1][5] - Economic indicators show resilience in the U.S. economy, with a decrease in initial jobless claims and a retail sales increase of 0.6% in August, three times the market expectation [2][3] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, with the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rising from -0.3 in August to 23.2 in September, indicating a return to expansion [2] - The real estate market continues to face challenges due to high mortgage rates and supply shortages, with new housing starts and building permits both declining month-over-month in August [2] - The S&P 500's expected price-to-earnings ratio is at 22.6, placing it in the 99th percentile over the past 20 years, suggesting potential for a market correction after recent gains [6] Group 3 - The market's resilience is supported by multiple fundamental factors, including a technology-led investment cycle, robust economic fundamentals, and a relatively accommodative Federal Reserve policy [7] - Investor sentiment remains cautious regarding high valuations, with a record 58% of fund managers believing stocks are overvalued, yet 28% still opting for an overweight position in equities, the highest in seven months [5] - The upcoming months may see a gradual reduction in the impact of tightened financial conditions and policy uncertainty, with more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies expected to drive economic recovery in 2026 [3][7]