Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts is expected to catalyze a global asset reallocation, impacting both U.S. and non-U.S. markets, with emerging markets likely to outperform developed markets during this period [4][5][15]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.0%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since the current cycle began in September of the previous year [4][11]. - The rate cut is anticipated to boost U.S. stock markets, although high valuations present a challenge for investors [15]. - Historical trends indicate that during periods of dollar depreciation, emerging markets typically perform better than developed markets, suggesting a potential for significant relative returns [4][15]. Group 2: Global Asset Reallocation - The trend of reallocating global assets has accelerated, with non-U.S. assets showing particularly strong performance; the MSCI Global (excluding the U.S.) index has risen by 22.7% this year, compared to a 12.5% increase in the MSCI U.S. index [7][15]. - Chinese assets, particularly Hong Kong stocks, are expected to benefit from global liquidity shifts and a potential turning point in mainland earnings [4][15]. - The A-share market is seen as having a valuation recovery potential, especially in technology stocks, which are sensitive to liquidity and attractive to global capital seeking high returns [4][15]. Group 3: Gold and Currency Dynamics - The restart of rate cuts is likely to lead to a decline in real interest rates, which may increase gold futures holdings and support gold prices [4][16]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, with global central bank gold buying exceeding 1,000 tons annually since 2022, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences [9][16]. - The dollar's dominance is under scrutiny, with a potential long-term decline in its value as political pressures on the Federal Reserve increase, impacting its international credibility [13][14]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Investor sentiment is shifting, with a notable increase in concerns about inflation risks, which could destabilize market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [19][20]. - The current economic policies and pressures on the Federal Reserve may lead to a loss of independence, further exacerbating the dollar's decline and affecting global capital flows [12][13]. - The potential for external shocks and geopolitical uncertainties remains a concern, necessitating a strategic approach to asset allocation amidst these dynamics [20].
美联储降息催化全球资产配置再平衡