大抛售重启，美债只剩7307亿，机会难得，中国抛售突然加速

Core Insights - China has significantly reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds, selling $25.7 billion in July 2025 alone, bringing its total holdings down to $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2009, and a 41% decrease from the peak of $1.3 trillion in 2013 [1][15][17] - This reduction in US debt holdings coincides with increased purchases of US Treasuries by the UK and Japan, indicating a shift in global financial dynamics [1][2] Group 1: China's Debt Reduction Strategy - China's reduction of US Treasury bonds has been ongoing since April 2022, with total reductions of $173.2 billion in 2022, $50.8 billion in 2023, and $57.3 billion in 2024 [2][4] - As a result of this strategy, China has fallen to the third-largest holder of US debt, surpassed by the UK and Japan [2] Group 2: Strategic Considerations Behind the Reduction - The US government's debt has ballooned to $37 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and the credibility of the dollar as a global reserve currency [4][6] - The actual yield on 10-year US Treasuries is around 4%, while Chinese government bonds yield only 1.85%, making US debt less attractive [6] - Trade tensions with the US have also motivated China to reduce its holdings as a form of financial countermeasure [6] Group 3: Shift to Gold and Diversification - Concurrently, China has been increasing its gold reserves, which reached 74.02 million ounces by August 2025, as part of a strategy to diversify its foreign exchange reserves [8][10] - The current gold reserves represent only 7.3% of China's international reserves, indicating room for growth towards a target of 10% [8] Group 4: Global Financial Implications - China's actions may lead to a decline in US Treasury prices and a rise in yields, potentially increasing borrowing costs for the US government and corporations [10][14] - The reduction in US debt holdings is contributing to a broader trend of "de-dollarization," with the share of dollar assets globally dropping to 58.7% in 2024 [10][14] Group 5: Strategic Transition in Reserve Management - China's strategy is shifting from passive holding to active optimization of its foreign exchange reserves, with a focus on enhancing the international role of the renminbi [14][15] - The establishment of a digital renminbi and gold settlement system is part of this strategy, aimed at reducing reliance on the US dollar [14][15] Group 6: Future Outlook - The trend of reducing US Treasury holdings is expected to continue as part of China's long-term strategy to optimize its foreign exchange reserves [17] - This capital movement is reshaping the global financial landscape, as China seeks to establish a new financial order centered around gold [17]