Arthur Hayes 全文：我们已进入周期中段，DAT 会出现"类 FTX 崩溃"

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. is predicted to enter a phase of simultaneous interest rate cuts and fiscal expansion, with a higher likelihood of a 50 basis point cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1][2] - Historical precedents suggest that U.S. presidents often achieve their desired monetary policies, indicating that the current administration may push for lower interest rates [2] - The Federal Reserve's role may be diminished as stablecoins act as "price-insensitive buyers" of U.S. Treasury bonds, potentially altering the dynamics of monetary policy [1][14] Group 2: Bitcoin and Stablecoins - Bitcoin is viewed as a core asset for hedging against fiat currency devaluation, with its performance expected to be strong in the context of increasing money supply [2][17] - The potential influx of approximately $10 trillion into stablecoins could significantly impact the DeFi ecosystem, providing liquidity and driving demand for decentralized finance protocols [12][19] - Stablecoins are anticipated to facilitate a shift in how monetary policy is executed, with their underlying assets possibly mandated to be held in banks or T-bills, thus influencing short-term interest rates [14][15] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The growth of stablecoins and DeFi protocols is expected to create substantial investment opportunities, particularly in projects like Hyperliquid, which could become a leading trading platform [19][20] - The potential for a $34 trillion total addressable market for stablecoins indicates a significant shift in capital flows, with implications for traditional banking and investment strategies [11][12] - The current economic environment may lead to increased speculation in cryptocurrencies, as individuals seek alternative investment avenues amid fiat currency depreciation [21][26]