中泰证券李迅雷：全球经济步入债务驱动时代

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the world has experienced a prolonged period of relative peace since the end of World War II, leading to significant population and economic growth, but also highlights the substantial costs associated with this growth, including rising inequality and increasing public debt [1] Economic Growth and Population - Since 1945, the global population has increased from 2.5 billion to 8.1 billion, indicating a substantial demographic expansion [1] - Economic growth has outpaced population growth, but this has come at a significant cost [1] Costs of Economic Growth - The article outlines several negative consequences of economic growth, including: - Widening wealth disparity - Environmental pollution - Intensified economic conflicts between nations - Domestic debt crises [1] Debt Dependency - Major global economies are increasingly reliant on debt for growth, with the rate of debt increase surpassing economic growth rates [1] - The macro leverage ratio is continuously rising, indicating a growing dependency on borrowing [1] Recommendations for Debt Management - The article suggests several measures to address the rising public debt: - Increase transparency regarding debt levels - Make hidden debts visible - Utilize larger-scale local special bonds to replace hidden debts - Encourage local governments to obtain long-term low-interest loans from policy banks and state-owned banks to replace hidden debts [1] - It also recommends that central banks implement significant interest rate cuts and modify laws to allow central banks to purchase government bonds, thereby increasing the proportion of government bonds in central bank assets [1]