中泰证券：海外降息落地不改变“股强债弱”的趋势

Group 1 - The bond market risks have not been resolved, and there is still room for adjustment within the year, with an upper limit potentially exceeding 1.8% [1] - Market expectations regarding monetary policy provide some support at key levels, but these expectations can eventually lead to either a positive or negative outcome [1] - The trend of "strong stocks and weak bonds" remains unchanged despite overseas interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The equity market is currently in a phase of risk appetite increase, and overseas interest rate cuts may provide emotional support [1] - Institutional reallocation between equity and bond assets continues, making it easier for bond rates to rise but harder for them to fall [1] - Recent rebounds in domestic commodities driven by policy expectation speculation may face a phase of correction [1]