王波明、姚洋、兰小欢圆桌对话：关税战会不会加速产业链外移，就业值不值得担忧？

Group 1: Tariff War and Its Impact - The tariff war initiated by the U.S. has led to a significant decrease in China's exports to the U.S., with a reported drop of 33.1% in August [3][4] - The U.S. has imposed a total of 50% tariffs on Chinese goods, while China has responded with a 30% tariff on U.S. imports, indicating a lack of complete parity in the tariff structure [4][5] - The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China have seen some flexibility from both sides, with China showing willingness to negotiate on certain tariffs, such as the 20% fentanyl tariff [5][14] Group 2: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Trends - FDI in China has declined significantly, dropping to levels seen in 2010, with a decrease of over $100 billion compared to previous highs [21][22] - Despite the decline in FDI, China's outbound direct investment (ODI) is on the rise, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [21][22] - The competitive landscape in China has made it challenging for foreign companies to establish profitable operations, leading to a natural decline in FDI [21][22] Group 3: Employment and Industry Dynamics - The shift in industry dynamics suggests that manufacturing alone may not create sufficient employment opportunities, as the sector's contribution to non-agricultural employment is less than 15% [27][28] - The rise of service industries and flexible employment models is becoming increasingly important for job creation, as traditional manufacturing jobs decline [31][32] - The trend of "China +1" indicates that while companies may establish operations abroad, they are not fully abandoning their domestic bases, reflecting a more integrated global supply chain strategy [16][17] Group 4: Global Supply Chain Adjustments - The concept of a "flexible global value chain" is emerging, allowing Chinese companies to adapt quickly to tariff changes by shifting production to countries with lower tariffs [16][17] - The reliance on Chinese suppliers remains high, as many products lack viable alternatives, making it difficult for U.S. companies to fully disengage from Chinese manufacturing [13][18] - The challenges faced by foreign companies in China are often due to increased competition from local firms, rather than solely the impact of tariffs [20][21]