Core Viewpoint - The National Standardization Administration of China has released a draft for mandatory national standards on energy consumption limits for polysilicon products, which will significantly impact the polysilicon industry by enforcing stricter energy consumption standards and potentially leading to a reduction in effective production capacity by approximately 16.4% by the end of 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: New Standards and Their Implications - The new energy consumption standards set limits for polysilicon production at ≤5 kgce/kg for Level 1, 5.5 kgce/kg for Level 2, and 6.4 kgce/kg for Level 3, corresponding to energy consumption of approximately 40.7 kWh/kg-Si, 48.8 kWh/kg-Si, and 52.1 kWh/kg-Si respectively [1]. - Existing polysilicon producers that do not meet the Level 3 standard will be required to rectify their operations, with non-compliance potentially leading to shutdowns [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the implementation of these standards may lead to the elimination of around 30% of polysilicon production capacity, depending on the actual execution of the policy and the technological upgrades undertaken by companies [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Following the announcement of the new standards, polysilicon prices have remained relatively stable, with recent trading around 53,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight weekly decline of 1.73% [2][3]. - The current market sentiment indicates that while there is a cautious optimism regarding the potential for price support due to the new standards, the immediate impact on supply and demand dynamics is expected to be limited [2][4]. - The production capacity of polysilicon companies has seen a recovery, with operational rates reaching 49% and monthly production around 130,000 tons, although there are concerns about potential declines in output during the dry season [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the polysilicon market may experience a period of stability in pricing, with significant improvements in the fundamental market conditions unlikely in the short term [4][5]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" sentiment in the market suggests that while there are expectations for capacity reductions, the actual realization of these changes will be gradual and systematic [3][4]. - The future trajectory of polysilicon prices will heavily depend on the timely implementation of supply-side policies and the clarity of the capacity reduction pathways [5].
多晶硅能耗将有新国标 约30%落后产能将被淘汰？
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-09-22 00:22