中秋备货支撑 花生短期不宜追空

Core Viewpoint - Peanut futures prices have been declining rapidly since the third quarter, with the spot market also showing weakness due to supply pressures and insufficient demand [1][2] Supply Side - Peanut planting area has increased for three consecutive years, leading to a continued loose supply situation. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs projects a 4.01% year-on-year increase in peanut planting area to 4.5749 million hectares by 2025 [1] - The current average price of peanuts is 8,300 yuan per ton, slightly down from the end of August [1] - The quality of peanuts from the southern Henan region is inconsistent, with higher moisture content leading to lower prices, which drags down the overall market [1] - Imports from major supplying countries are affected by ongoing tensions in Sudan, which has led to a decrease in production and exports, further reducing supply to China [1] Demand Side - The operating rate of peanut oil mills remains low, but there is potential for price support as oil mills gradually enter the market for procurement [3] - Peanut oil prices have stabilized at low levels between 7,500 and 7,600 yuan per ton, with oil mills showing increased procurement activity in the first half of the year, reaching 580,000 tons, a 10.9% year-on-year increase [3] - Consumer demand for peanuts continues to be weak, with downstream traders adopting a just-in-time purchasing strategy, leading to limited stockpiling [3] - Export demand has seen a 27% year-on-year increase in peanut exports from January to July, totaling 95,000 tons, but this has a limited impact on domestic prices due to the small proportion of exports relative to total production [3] Market Outlook - The core driving factors for the peanut market will revolve around domestic supply and demand dynamics, with short-term price declines expected to be limited due to Mid-Autumn Festival stockpiling and the slow market entry of new peanuts from Henan and Northeast regions [4] - Key areas to monitor include the impact of weather on the quality of new peanuts in Henan and the harvest and market entry progress of new peanuts from Northeast regions [4]