财信证券宏观策略周报（9.22-9.26）：节前市场或以震荡整理为主，关注服务消费及高股息

Market Overview - Recent macro events are leaning towards a favorable market outlook, but the A-share index has retreated after a rise, indicating some breakthrough pressure at current levels [1][4] - The market's response to positive news has been tepid, particularly in previously popular tech sectors, suggesting a cooling of short-term market sentiment [1][4] - With the upcoming National Day holiday, trading activity is expected to decline, and a lack of clear macro catalysts may lead to a predominantly volatile market before the holiday [1][4] Investment Recommendations - Short-term strategy should focus on stability, with a recommendation to control exposure to high-risk sectors while emphasizing medium to long-term fundamentals [1][10] - Key areas of focus include: 1. Service consumption sectors such as tourism, dining, duty-free, and cinema [1][10] 2. High-dividend sectors like coal, banking, public utilities, and transportation [1][10] 3. "Anti-involution" sectors including steel, building materials, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries [1][10] 4. Sectors benefiting from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, such as Hang Seng Technology, precious metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][10] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed signs of stabilization, with August PPI month-on-month remaining flat after a 0.2% decline in July, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [2][5] - Fixed asset investment growth for January to August was 0.5% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by 2.0% and manufacturing investment by 5.1%, while real estate investment fell by 12.9% [5][6] - Consumer spending showed potential for improvement, with retail sales in August growing by 3.4% year-on-year, down from 3.7% in July [5][6] Policy Developments - The government is expected to continue implementing service consumption policies, with measures aimed at enhancing service supply and meeting diverse consumer needs [7] - The central bank's recent press conference on the "14th Five-Year Plan" will provide insights into monetary policy, capital markets, and real estate [6][7] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking a shift in focus from inflation to employment [9][11] - The Fed's projections indicate further rate cuts in the coming years, which may positively impact global liquidity and emerging markets [9][11] Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.30% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.14% during the last week [12] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased by 8.55% compared to the previous week, indicating a slight uptick in market activity [12]