把握化工“周期反转+成长”机遇，关注化工龙头ETF（516220）

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is currently experiencing heightened interest due to its cyclical nature and strong correlation with economic cycles, having entered a downward cycle since 2021 [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Cycle and Price Trends - The chemical industry has shown a consistent cyclical pattern, with alternating periods of upward and downward trends, indicating a relatively even distribution of cycles over time [1]. - From 2021 to the present, the chemical sector has gradually shifted into a state of oversupply, leading to a continuous decline in chemical prices [3]. - Recent asset price movements suggest a rapid rotation in investment focus, with the chemical sector attracting attention due to its relatively low price levels and potential for rebound [3]. Group 2: Catalysts and Market Sentiment - The concept of "anti-involution" has gained traction, particularly following high-level discussions by the Central Financial Committee, which has influenced market perceptions and expectations regarding demand [4][5]. - Despite initial skepticism about the effectiveness of anti-involution measures, subsequent announcements, such as the 1.2 trillion yuan Yajiang project, have bolstered market confidence [4]. - The recognition of anti-involution's necessity from a macroeconomic perspective suggests a sustained impact on the chemical sector, with early signs of improvement in inflation data [5][6]. Group 3: Fundamental Logic and Growth Potential - The chemical industry's fundamentals are characterized by a potential cycle reversal, with expectations of supply-demand balance gradually being achieved, indicating a bottoming process [8]. - The sector also possesses growth attributes, driven by increasing demand from emerging technologies such as batteries and robotics, which rely on chemical products [8]. - The Chemical Leaders ETF (516220) is highlighted as a means to capture investment opportunities within the sector, covering both traditional cyclical segments and new growth areas [8].