国际油价小幅下跌，尿素、蛋氨酸价格下跌

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing mixed price movements, with 33 products increasing in price, 31 decreasing, and 36 remaining stable during the week of September 15-21. The international oil prices have slightly decreased, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. Industry Dynamics - In the week of September 15-21, among 100 tracked chemical products, 33 saw price increases, 31 saw decreases, and 36 remained stable. 40% of the products had a month-on-month average price increase, while 47% experienced a decrease, and 13% remained flat [1]. - The top gainers in weekly average prices included acetic acid (East China), NYMEX natural gas, sulfur (CFR China spot price), calcium carbide (East China), and trichloroethylene (East China). Conversely, the largest price declines were seen in vitamin E, nitric acid (East China), epoxy chloropropane (East China), dichloromethane (East China), and polyester FDY (East China) [1]. - International oil prices saw a slight decline, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $62.68 per barrel (down 0.02%) and Brent crude oil futures at $66.68 per barrel (down 0.46%). The U.S. oil production averaged 13.482 million barrels per day, a decrease of 13,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 282,000 barrels year-on-year [2]. - The EIA reported that U.S. oil demand averaged 20.637 million barrels per day, an increase of 85,600 barrels from the previous week, with gasoline demand at 8.810 million barrels per day, up 30,200 barrels [2]. Urea Market - Urea prices decreased, with the domestic average price on September 19 at 1,675 yuan per ton, down 0.95% week-on-week and 11.70% year-on-year. Daily production averaged 193,300 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons from the previous week [3]. - The average operating rate for compound fertilizer was 40.78%, up 1.42 percentage points from the previous week, indicating stable production levels [3]. - The domestic coal market average price was 576 yuan per ton, up 1.77% week-on-week, which may support urea production costs [3]. Methionine Market - Methionine prices fell, with the domestic average price on September 19 at 21.65 yuan per kilogram, down 0.69% week-on-week but up 5.71% year-on-year. The production remained stable at 11,100 tons, with an industry operating rate of 54.09% [4]. - The demand for solid methionine was generally weak, with downstream purchasing being cautious [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - As of September 21, the SW basic chemical sector's P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) was 25.29, at the 75.31% historical percentile, while the P/B ratio was 2.21, at the 52.99% historical percentile. The SW oil and petrochemical sector's P/E ratio was 11.50, at the 23.70% historical percentile, and the P/B ratio was 1.14, at the 19.28% historical percentile [6]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors affected by tariff policies, companies in electronic materials, undervalued industry leaders, and energy firms with stable dividend policies [6]. - Long-term investment themes include the sustained high oil prices benefiting the oil and gas exploration sector, the rapid development of downstream industries, and the potential for recovery in demand supported by policy changes [6]. Notable Stocks - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, China Petrochemical, and several others in the new materials and energy sectors [7].