管涛：三方面因素支撑人民币汇率走强

Core Viewpoint - The strengthening of the RMB exchange rate is a result of a combination of internal and external factors, as stated by the chief economist of China Securities, Guan Tao [1] Group 1: Reasons for RMB Strengthening - The first reason is the failure of the "American exceptionalism" narrative and the damage to the credibility of the US dollar, leading to a significant depreciation of the dollar [1] - The second reason is the recovery of the Chinese economy and the improvement in the prospects for technological innovation, which has led to a re-evaluation of Chinese assets [1] - The third reason is the positive progress in China-US economic and trade negotiations since mid-May, which has improved market sentiment [1] Group 2: Future Outlook for RMB - Market analysis suggests that the RMB may enter a new appreciation cycle [1] - Guan Tao believes that the RMB exchange rate is not significantly deviating from the equilibrium level, with factors influencing both appreciation and depreciation present simultaneously [1] Group 3: Positive Factors Influencing RMB - Four favorable factors are identified: 1. The Federal Reserve's potential return to interest rate cuts, which may weaken the dollar index further [1] 2. Trump's aggressive trade policies and interference with the independence of the Federal Reserve could further harm the international credibility of the dollar [1] 3. Active promotion of economic and trade negotiations by both China and the US [1] 4. China's proactive measures against external economic pressures and the continuous vitality of technological innovation [1] Group 4: Market Volatility - Guan Tao indicates that due to numerous internal and external uncertainties, the RMB exchange rate may experience more pronounced two-way fluctuations [1]