金荣中国：美政府停摆风险上升，金价触底反弹回归涨势

Market Overview - International gold prices rose again on September 19, with an opening price of $3641.30 per ounce, a high of $3675.86, a low of $3632.29, and a closing price of $3670.74 [1] Economic News - The U.S. House passed a Republican funding bill that did not pass in the Senate; Democratic leaders are urging a quick meeting with Trump to avoid a government shutdown [2] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expects two more rate cuts this year [2] - Fed Governor Milan opposed a 25 basis point cut, supporting a 50 basis point cut instead, believing tariffs have no significant impact on inflation and advocating for faster rate cuts in the coming months [2] Geopolitical Developments - U.S. senators are seeking to increase financial pressure on Russia, targeting Moscow's energy exports with a new bill aimed at expanding sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet" of oil tankers [4] - The EU has approved a new round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the oil price cap to $47.6 per barrel and proposing a ban on Russian LNG imports by January 1, 2027, a year earlier than planned [4] - President Trump plans to meet with leaders from Arab and Muslim countries to discuss ways to end the Gaza conflict during the UN General Assembly [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in October is 8.1%, with a 91.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut [5] - By December, the probability of maintaining rates is 1%, with an 80.5% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a strong upward trend, with a significant rebound after touching a low of $3632, reaching a high of $3685 [9] - The daily chart indicates a bullish trend, with moving averages showing a consistent upward divergence [9] - Short-term trading strategies suggest maintaining a cautious bullish approach, focusing on buying on dips [10]