再过5年，200万的房产大概值多少钱？孙宏斌与王健林说法一致

Core Insights - The future of the real estate market is characterized by a clear divergence in property values, emphasizing the importance of location and property quality [1][2][17] - Industry leaders Wang Jianlin and Sun Hongbin agree that the era of indiscriminate property investment is over, urging buyers to be more selective [2][17] Group 1: Market Trends - Wang Jianlin notes that the real estate market in China has reached saturation, and the previous trend of guaranteed price increases is no longer valid [2] - Sun Hongbin highlights that while there is an oversupply of low-quality housing in third and fourth-tier cities, high-quality properties remain in demand [2][17] Group 2: City-Level Analysis - In first-tier cities, premium properties in core areas continue to appreciate, with examples showing price increases of 0.36% in Shenzhen's Nanshan District [3][4] - Conversely, older properties in prime locations face significant price declines, with some experiencing a 15% drop in 2023 [4] - Strong second-tier cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu show moderate price increases, particularly in industrial hubs, with projected growth of 3% in key areas [5][6] Group 3: Property Quality Segmentation - Three categories of properties are expected to appreciate: well-located affordable housing, high-quality upgrade housing, and small units in prime locations [6][10][12] - Properties lacking essential amenities, such as old neighborhoods and remote "ghost town" developments, are at risk of significant value depreciation [12][13] Group 4: Investment Guidelines - Buyers are advised to prioritize properties in first-tier cities and well-supported second-tier cities, focusing on quality and location [14][15] - The importance of surrounding infrastructure, such as transportation and educational facilities, is emphasized as a key factor in property value stability [14][15]