降息+避险双重助力，黄金或迎来加速上涨

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices remain strong following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut of 25 basis points, which has increased the appeal of non-yielding assets [1][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Despite a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts, the overall upward trend in gold prices is expected to continue due to strong market expectations for further easing [3] - The upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is a key focus, as a slowdown in inflation could reinforce expectations for additional rate cuts this year [3] - Current market surveys indicate traders anticipate nearly two more rate cuts within the year [3] Group 2: Gold Price Dynamics - Year-to-date, gold has seen an increase of nearly 40%, supported by factors such as geopolitical risks, U.S. tariff policies creating global economic uncertainty, and central banks increasing gold purchases and ETF holdings [3] - Technical analysis shows strong support for gold around $3,650, with resistance concentrated at the $3,700 level; a breakthrough could lead to a challenge of historical highs between $3,710 and $3,720 [3] - The moving average system remains bullish, with MACD in a positive momentum zone, although momentum is narrowing, indicating a potential slowdown in the upward trend [3] Group 3: Editor's Perspective - Gold prices are currently driven by both Federal Reserve policy expectations and safe-haven demand; if PCE inflation data shows a slowdown, prices may approach or exceed historical highs [5] - Conversely, stronger-than-expected data could trigger market adjustments [5] - In the medium to long term, the trend of central bank gold purchases, global economic uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical risks will continue to provide solid support for gold [5]