中国收缩城市究竟有多少？

Core Viewpoint - The recent identification of 138 shrinking cities in China is considered exaggerated due to misinterpretation of urban spatial definitions, primarily based on administrative boundaries rather than actual urban areas [1][4]. Group 1: Misunderstanding of "City" - There are two basic understandings of urban spatial boundaries: administrative regions and actual built-up areas [2]. - Administrative regions include rural and ecological spaces, making population statistics incomparable [3]. - The shrinking city classification based on total population changes within administrative boundaries often reflects rural population declines rather than urban [4]. Group 2: Identification of Shrinking Cities - A study published in "Geographical Research" identified only 48 shrinking cities from 693 analyzed between 2010 and 2020, contrasting with the 138 previously reported [8]. - The majority of shrinking cities experienced a population decline of less than 50,000, indicating that the scale of decline is relatively small compared to growing cities [9]. Group 3: Population Change Statistics - From 2010 to 2020, urban populations in China grew from 670 million to 900 million, with an urbanization rate increase from 49.68% to 63.89% [13]. - The shrinking cities accounted for a minor population decline of -0.77% in contrast to the overall growth of urban areas [10]. Group 4: Reasons for Shrinking Cities - The primary reasons for the emergence of shrinking cities include economic transformation challenges, demographic shifts such as aging populations and low birth rates, and specific urban development policies [15]. - The classification of shrinking cities should not be overstated, as only a few cities are experiencing population declines, and broader factors such as economic and social dimensions should also be considered [14].