美股三连新高背后：谁在托底？一场降息预期与盈利分化的豪赌

Group 1 - The recent performance of the three major U.S. stock indices has been strong, with record highs, raising questions about the sustainability of this rally and its underlying drivers [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a significant factor contributing to the stock market's rise, but it is not a guaranteed solution for long-term growth [3] - Company earnings are crucial for sustained stock market growth, as evidenced by FedEx's strong earnings boosting its stock, while Lennar's disappointing results led to a 4.2% drop in its stock price [3] Group 2 - The rise in gold prices, which has significantly benefited Newmont Mining's stock, is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, inflation fears, and concerns over government debt devaluation [5] - However, if the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are not as substantial as anticipated or if inflation decreases, the upward momentum in gold prices may weaken [5] - The Federal Reserve primarily relies on interest rates as its main tool for economic management, facing challenges in balancing employment growth and inflation control [7] Group 3 - Concerns exist regarding the impact of declining stock markets in Europe and Asia on U.S. markets, particularly as the Nikkei index fell due to the Bank of Japan's stock sales [7] - The U.S. stock market's strength is primarily supported by domestic factors, such as interest rate expectations and strong corporate earnings, rather than external market movements [7] - The slowing growth in the U.S. job market and potential global economic slowdown could negatively affect U.S. companies' overseas operations, posing risks to the stock market [9]