9月LPR报价保持不变，未来走势如何？解读来了

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, aligning with market expectations [1] - The stability in LPR quotes is attributed to unchanged policy rates and a lack of incentive for banks to lower LPR amid historically low net interest margins [1] - Macro data such as consumption, investment, and industrial production have shown a decline due to multiple factors including extreme weather and real estate market adjustments, but fiscal policies have been strengthened [1] Group 2 - The high tariff policies from the U.S. are expected to further impact global trade and China's exports in Q4, increasing the necessity for policies aimed at stabilizing growth and employment [3] - There is potential for a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank in Q4, which could lead to lower LPR quotes and stimulate internal financing demand [3] - The need for stronger policies to stabilize the real estate market is anticipated, with expectations for regulatory measures to guide down the 5-year LPR, thereby reducing mortgage rates and boosting housing demand [3]