中金：美联储降息空间将收窄

Core Viewpoint - The recent report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 25 basis points in October due to weak U.S. employment data, but further rate cuts will be constrained by rising inflation pressures [1] Economic Analysis - The core issue facing the U.S. economy is not insufficient demand, but rather the continuous rise in supply-side costs [1] - Over-reliance on monetary easing may not effectively boost employment and could exacerbate inflationary pressures, potentially leading to a "stagflation-like" scenario where economic growth slows while inflation remains high [1] Market Indicators - The U.S. dollar index is currently around 97.60, with short-term moving averages (10-day and 20-day) showing a slight downward trend, indicating short-term pressure [1] - The RSI indicator has retreated from a neutral high to around 50, suggesting a balance between bullish and bearish forces, but with increasing downward momentum [1]