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历史上的三轮产能周期
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-22 05:39

Group 1 - The core theme of the article revolves around the concept of "anti-involution" in the market, which is expected to lead to a new inflationary cycle following the recent policies aimed at preventing excessive competition [1][2] - The current round of capacity surplus is characterized by its unique origins, primarily driven by external factors rather than internal ones, particularly due to the pandemic's impact on supply chains and demand fluctuations [1][2] - Historical context shows that since 2008, China has experienced three rounds of capacity surplus, with the current one nearing its end, influenced by previous economic crises and government stimulus measures [3][4] Group 2 - The first round of capacity surplus occurred from 2009 to 2015, marked by a rapid recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, leading to a prolonged deflationary period due to unaddressed excess capacity [3][4] - The second round from 2016 to 2020 was initiated by supply-side reforms in response to ineffective demand-side stimuli, resulting in a more typical cycle length of 4-5 years [4][5] - The article highlights that the real estate market played a significant role in supporting traditional cyclical industries during these periods, particularly during the peak of the housing market from 2016 to 2017 [5]