Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-22 06:49Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a sustained high average daily trading volume (ADT) in the A-share market, leading to increased confidence in the annual ADT forecast, which has been raised by 53% to RMB 1.53 trillion for 2025 [1] - The firm anticipates a year-on-year growth of 5% to 6% in ADT for 2026 and 2027, resulting in an average upward revision of 25%, 23%, and 20% for the earnings forecasts of covered Chinese brokers from 2025 to 2027 [1] - Increased trading activity is expected to boost brokerage commissions, margin interest, and operational leverage, with ample market liquidity supporting more financing activities [1] Company-Specific Insights - The report highlights that the improved market conditions will benefit firms like China International Capital Corporation (CICC), CITIC Securities, and GF Securities, which have strong underwriting, trading, and asset management businesses [1] - The average return on equity (ROE) for the brokerage sector is projected to rebound to 9% by 2026, with CITIC Securities and CICC expected to achieve ROEs of 10.7% and 9.4%, respectively [1] - Current forecasts suggest that investment income for CICC, GF Securities, and CITIC Securities will grow by 20%, 21%, and 11% this year, while East Money Information and China Merchants Securities may experience declines in investment income [1]