中泰证券：煤价重新站上700元/吨 把握煤炭配置机遇

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is expected to experience a tightening supply situation due to proactive production cuts ahead of the National Day holiday and ongoing checks for overproduction in major coal-producing regions, leading to a structural shortage of quality coal resources and a potential increase in coal prices [1][2][4]. Supply Side - Continuous checks for overproduction in major coal-producing areas are anticipated, with proactive production cuts expected before the National Day holiday, reinforcing both short-term and long-term supply contraction expectations [1][2]. - The Inner Mongolia Energy Bureau has identified 93 coal mines with overproduction issues, with a 31% overproduction rate, particularly in Ordos City, where 82 mines are affected. Mines exceeding production limits by over 10% will be ordered to suspend operations for rectification [1]. - A dynamic regulatory mechanism is to be established to prevent overproduction and ensure safe coal mining operations [1]. Demand Side - There is an expectation of gradual improvement in coal demand from non-electric industries during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with steel consumption anticipated to increase [3]. - Steel production remains stable, with daily pig iron output at 1.9 million tons, reflecting a 3.8% week-on-week increase and a 6.3% year-on-year increase [3]. Inventory Side - Port inventories are experiencing significant depletion, with Qinhuangdao port coal inventory dropping to 5.9 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 7.96% [4]. - The upcoming maintenance of the Daqin railway line, starting October 7 for 20 days, is expected to reduce coal transport capacity, further tightening port inventories and increasing the scarcity of marketable coal resources [4]. Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at Jingtang Port has increased by 24 CNY/ton week-on-week, reaching 709 CNY/ton, despite a year-on-year decrease of 18.69% [5]. - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port has risen by 130 CNY/ton week-on-week, indicating a strong upward trend in coal prices [6]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector has seen significant declines this year, with institutional holdings at low levels, suggesting a healthy trading environment. The anticipated demand surge for non-electric coal and winter peak demand could catalyze further price increases [8]. - Recommended high-elasticity stocks include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shanxi Coal International Energy Group, and China Shenhua Energy, among others, which are expected to benefit from the market conditions [8].