Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-22 07:35Group 1 - Morgan Stanley believes that Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)(03993) will see an absolute increase in stock price within the next 30 days, estimating a probability of about 70% to 80% for this scenario, maintaining an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 11.7, based on discounted cash flow valuation [1] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has announced an extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15, followed by the implementation of export quotas, with quotas for 2026 to 2027 set at 40% of normal production [1] - Assuming Luoyang Molybdenum can obtain a quota ratio similar to the national level, its potential sales volume could reach approximately 8,600 tons in Q4 2025 and 43,600 tons in 2026 to 2027, with significant impacts expected on cobalt supply due to the DRC accounting for 70% of global supply [1]