9月LPR保持“按兵不动”，四季度5年期以上LPR有望单独下行

Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, reflecting stability in monetary policy and market conditions [1][4]. Interest Rate Trends - The LPR has not changed for four consecutive months since a reduction in May 2025, where the 1-year LPR decreased from 3.10% to 3.0% and the 5-year LPR from 3.60% to 3.5% [4]. - The stability in LPR is attributed to the unchanged 7-day reverse repurchase rate and market expectations influenced by various factors, including the recent rise in medium to long-term market interest rates [4]. Financial Market Performance - Recent fluctuations in the bond market have led to increased attention on the 10-year government bond yield, which briefly surpassed 1.8%, with the latest yield reported at 1.7890% [4]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42% as of Q2 2025, showing a slight decline from the previous quarter [5]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Analysts anticipate potential interest rate cuts in Q4 2025, which could lead to further reductions in LPR, thereby encouraging lower loan rates for businesses and consumers [6]. - The current low inflation environment provides sufficient room for monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts, without immediate concerns over high inflation [6]. - There is a focus on reducing housing loan rates to stimulate demand and stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for targeted reductions in the 5-year LPR [6].