社会库存下滑 沪铜有所反弹【9月22日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by various factors, including the performance of precious metals, domestic inventory levels, and macroeconomic conditions, with a cautious outlook on future demand and pricing trends [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Copper prices opened higher and showed a strong upward trend during the day, closing up by 0.43% [1] - The sentiment in the metal market was boosted by a significant rise in precious metals [1] - Domestic refined copper social inventory continues to decline, contributing to a slight rebound in copper prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's cautious stance following the September interest rate cut has led to a temporary rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which, along with a pullback in precious metals, caused a correction in copper prices [1] - However, dovish comments from some Federal Reserve officials over the weekend have renewed market expectations for future monetary easing, improving market sentiment and supporting a rebound in copper prices [1] Group 3: Import and Supply Dynamics - Customs data indicates that China's copper ore imports increased both year-on-year and month-on-month in August [1] - Despite the increase in imports, domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low, indicating a tight supply situation that is unlikely to change in the near term [1] Group 4: Inventory and Demand Outlook - National mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons over the weekend [1] - According to Everbright Futures, the anticipated demand during the "golden September and silver October" period has not yet materialized, with downstream purchasing remaining cautious due to high prices and macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - The upcoming National Day holiday may lead to unpredictable overseas macro risks, contributing to a cautious sentiment in the domestic market, which could affect weekly price volatility [1] - Overall, the prevailing liquidity easing in global financial markets suggests a generally strong outlook for copper prices, with potential opportunities for downstream replenishment if prices weaken [1]