下游逢低补货 沪锡震荡走高【9月22日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight upward trend, driven by improved trading in the spot market and a notable reduction in social inventory, despite weak supply and demand fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main tin contract rose by 1.5%, closing at 272,510 yuan/ton [1]. - Last week, tin prices experienced a continuous decline, but the spot market showed slight improvement due to downstream replenishment activities [1]. - The overall order levels in September remained stable compared to August, despite being in a peak consumption season [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tin is constrained by slow recovery in Myanmar's tin mines and low operating rates at domestic smelting enterprises due to high costs and seasonal production cuts [1]. - Myanmar's Wa State tin mine exports were around 1,200 tons in August, indicating a persistent supply gap [1]. - The overall consumption level in September is expected to decline compared to previous years, with most enterprises maintaining a wait-and-see approach [2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The electronic industry may see increased usage of tin solder due to trends in AI and humanoid robots, although overall demand remains limited [2]. - The recent price corrections have led to improved inventory levels in downstream warehouses, suggesting a potential for gradual recovery in production and operating rates for tin solder enterprises [2]. - Despite a slight recovery in the automotive market, other sectors remain weak, but domestic inventory has significantly decreased, providing strong support for tin prices [2].