第四轮中美经贸会谈落幕后，一个事关“大国意志”的判断已然显现

Core Insights - The article discusses the dynamics of sanctions and economic warfare, emphasizing the importance of power relations in trade and the psychological aspects of modern economic conflicts [2][3][4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Theoretical Framework - The core concept of sanctions and economic warfare revolves around the power dynamics inherent in trade relationships, particularly the significance of food and energy in economic security [2]. - Modern economic struggles are characterized by efforts to weaken the opponent's will rather than merely imposing blockades, reflecting a shift from ancient siege tactics [2][3]. - The effectiveness of sanctions is influenced by the internal economic structure and political organization of the targeted nation, which can lead to varied responses based on domestic conditions [4]. Group 2: Domestic and International Dynamics - Understanding the interplay between international and domestic political environments is crucial for comprehending the effectiveness of sanctions [3]. - Domestic political factors, such as public sentiment and the influence of interest groups, play a significant role in the implementation and sustainability of sanctions [3][4]. - The perception of economic interdependence and the potential backlash against sanctions can lead to a reevaluation of their effectiveness [3][5]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - The article highlights the importance of strategic planning in the application of sanctions, suggesting that threats can be more effective than actual implementation [21]. - The concept of "pressure fluctuations" indicates that the effectiveness of sanctions is not solely based on the level of pressure applied but on the ability to create significant disruptions within the targeted society [22]. - Post-sanction strategies should focus on rebuilding economic relationships to mitigate long-term negative effects and avoid creating "immunity" to future sanctions [22]. Group 4: Global Context and Future Implications - The article outlines the differences in sanctioning large versus small nations, noting that the costs and objectives vary significantly based on the scale of the country involved [8][9][10]. - The role of third parties in sanctions can either bolster or undermine their effectiveness, as external support can help mitigate the impact on the targeted nation [10]. - The ongoing economic competition between major powers, particularly between the U.S. and China, is expected to intensify, with technology and market control becoming central themes in future economic conflicts [13][19][20].