Group 1: Industry Overview - Morgan Stanley reports that capacity reductions in the mainland automotive industry are driving industry consolidation, with luxury car dealers expected to benefit first [1] - It is anticipated that from 2025 to 2026, there will be an acceleration in dealership closures, as the overall profit margin for new cars fell below 1% in the first half of this year, making it unattractive for small dealers [1] - Automakers plan to reduce their dealership networks in mainland China by 10% to 30% by the end of 2026, which will favor financially stable dealers [1] Group 2: Company Insights - Zhongsheng Holdings (00881) is expected to continue dominating the automotive accident repair business, while independent repair shops like Tuhu-W (09690) will capture market share in maintenance and minor repairs [1] - Excluding the pandemic impact from 2020 to 2021, Zhongsheng Holdings' repair service gross profit has a compound annual growth rate of 14% from 2017 to 2024, which is expected to support core profitability in the future [1] - After four years of a downward cycle, Zhongsheng Holdings is believed to be at a turning point, with a projected 67% year-on-year rebound in profit to 4 billion RMB by 2026, driven by the recovery of new car profit margins and increased market share in accident repair [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - The decline in capital expenditure needs suggests that the expected dividend yield of 5% in 2026 still has upside potential; the target price for Zhongsheng Holdings has been raised from 15 HKD to 21 HKD with an upgrade to "overweight" rating [1] - Tuhu is also rated "overweight," with an expected compound annual growth rate of 25% in earnings from 2025 to 2027, based on user growth in its app and expansion of franchise stores; the target price has been increased from 20 HKD to 23 HKD [2] - For Meidong Automotive (01268), the target price has been lowered from 2.2 HKD to 2.1 HKD, maintaining a "market perform" rating [2]