施罗德投资：美联储降息或推高2026年通胀压力

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates despite a robust U.S. economy and near-full employment may exacerbate inflation risks, with expectations of two more rate cuts by the end of 2025, each by 25 basis points [1][2] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is showing signs of strength, with economic growth prompting a rebound in the labor market, which could lead to higher inflation [1] - Recent job growth has slowed, influenced by lagging labor market effects and tighter immigration policies [1] - The Fed's recent rate cut is seen as unexpected, given the overall economic recovery and rising growth forecasts [1][2] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Schroders expresses concern that easing monetary policy at this stage of the economic cycle may be counterproductive, as there is little macroeconomic justification for stimulus measures [2] - The current economic environment, characterized by high stock market levels and low credit spreads, suggests that rate cuts may stimulate inflation rather than real growth [2] - Long-term inflation risks are emerging, driven by structural constraints in labor supply, which could lead to tighter labor markets and more persistent inflation [2] Group 3: Global Economic Outlook - With reduced trade risks and a rebound in global manufacturing indicators, Schroders has raised economic growth forecasts for regions outside the U.S. [3] - Unlike the U.S., stimulus measures in other regions are more likely to translate into real growth rather than inflation [3] - The irony lies in the fact that despite efforts to bring demand back to the U.S., the stimulus measures may ultimately benefit other markets more significantly [3]