美联储降息，中国不跟，9月利率维持不变！今年还有可能降息吗？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, leading to speculation about whether China will follow suit [1] - On September 22, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintained the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, indicating that China is not immediately following the U.S. rate cut [1][3] - The PBOC's monetary policy remains stable due to deep institutional logic, with a focus on market-oriented interest rate reforms and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate becoming the new policy anchor [3][5] Group 2 - The PBOC conducted a 3.543 trillion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a stable rate of 1.4%, suggesting that the LPR is unlikely to decrease this month [4] - Despite a cumulative reduction of 135 basis points in the five-year LPR from 4.85% to 3.5%, the actual interest rate remains relatively high due to the "negative inflation effect" [4] - The divergence in monetary policy between China and the U.S. is rooted in differences in financial systems, with China maintaining a relatively loose monetary policy environment based on domestic economic needs [5] Group 3 - Following the U.S. rate cut, the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. has narrowed, but the U.S. policy rate remains significantly higher, providing room for potential rate cuts in China [6] - The fourth quarter may present an important window for China to implement rate cuts, with the possibility of the U.S. Federal Reserve making two more rate cuts by the end of the year [6][8] - The probability of a rate cut in China has significantly increased due to the ongoing economic recovery needs, with varying impacts on different segments of the population [8] Group 4 - China's monetary policy will continue to adhere to a "self-directed" approach, not blindly following U.S. policy while considering international economic and financial changes [10] - The focus will be on serving the real economy through targeted support for key areas and maintaining overall financial stability, which is crucial for the long-term stability of the Chinese economy [10]