荷兰国际集团：短期美债中性，2026年10年期收益率或升至4.5%

Core Viewpoint - The Dutch International Group's interest rate strategists maintain a neutral stance on U.S. Treasury bonds in the short term, anticipating a modest increase in market optimism due to expected core PCE growth of 0.2% [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - The anticipated core PCE growth is expected to boost market optimism and lead to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The strategists are closely monitoring opportunities to shift towards a more bearish position on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve shows less concern regarding growth prospects, supported by recent unemployment claims data indicating a stable job market [1] - Inflation data is expected to rebound, with ongoing supply-side pressures suggesting an upward trend in yields [1] Group 3: Yield Projections - The strategists project that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds will rise to 4.5% by 2026 [1]