全球观·中国策丨对话张许颖：逐步建立、实施具有中国特色的“开端计划”

Core Insights - The article discusses the transition of China's population development from growth to reduction, highlighting the challenges and strategies for promoting high-quality population development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4][5][6]. Group 1: Population Trends and Challenges - China is entering a new phase of population development characterized by declining birth rates, aging population, and regional population disparities [4][5]. - The total fertility rate in China is expected to fluctuate at low levels during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating that low birth rates will accompany the entire process of building a modern strong country [5][6]. - The reduction of the school-age population is projected to decrease by approximately 130 million from 2020 to 2035, presenting both challenges and opportunities for educational reform [6]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - It is recommended that the government elevate the response to declining birth rates to a national strategy, develop a high-quality population development plan, and establish a comprehensive population governance system [4][7]. - The establishment of a Chinese-style fertility guarantee system is crucial, focusing on maternity insurance, childcare services, and reproductive health services [7][9]. - The article emphasizes the need for increased investment in early childhood development, particularly for children aged 0-6, to enhance human capital and address family support issues [9][10]. Group 3: Transition from Population Dividend to Talent Dividend - The transition from a "population dividend" to a "talent dividend" requires high-quality talent to meet the demands of new productive forces, supported by appropriate policy measures [11][12]. - The integration of education, health, and technology into a multi-dimensional population analysis framework is essential for improving overall population quality and countering the negative impacts of declining labor force numbers [11][12]. - The shift in policy terminology from "birth subsidies" to "child-rearing subsidies" reflects a significant milestone in China's population development, indicating a new phase focused on high-quality population growth [12].