多晶硅能耗将有新国标 约30%落后产能将被淘汰?

Core Viewpoint - The National Standardization Administration of China has released a draft for mandatory national standards on energy consumption limits for polysilicon products, which will significantly impact the polysilicon industry by enforcing stricter energy consumption standards and potentially leading to a reduction in effective production capacity by approximately 16.4% by the end of 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: New Standards and Their Implications - The new energy consumption standards set limits for polysilicon production at ≤5 kgce/kg for Level 1, 5.5 kgce/kg for Level 2, and 6.4 kgce/kg for Level 3, corresponding to energy consumption of approximately 40.7 kWh/kg-Si, 48.8 kWh/kg-Si, and 52.1 kWh/kg-Si respectively [1]. - Existing polysilicon producers that do not meet the Level 3 standard will be required to rectify their operations, with non-compliance potentially leading to shutdowns [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the implementation of these standards may lead to the elimination of around 30% of polysilicon production capacity, depending on the actual execution of the policy and the technological upgrades undertaken by companies [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Following the announcement of the new standards, polysilicon prices have remained relatively stable, with recent trading around 53,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight weekly decline of 1.73% [2][3]. - The current production profit margins for polysilicon companies are considered favorable, with production rates recovering to 49% and monthly output around 130,000 tons [3][4]. - The downstream market for silicon wafers and battery cells is showing some recovery in profit margins, although caution remains regarding future demand, particularly in the module segment [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations for the polysilicon market indicate limited improvements in the fundamental supply-demand balance, with prices likely to exhibit a range-bound trend [4][5]. - The upcoming dry season in the southwest region may impact production levels, and the market's future direction may depend on new developments regarding "anti-involution" measures [4][5]. - The price dynamics of polysilicon are currently heavily influenced by policy signals, with potential risks of price adjustments if substantial policy measures are not implemented in the near term [5].