9月LPR按兵不动，专家预测：年底前将有下降空间

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been deepening interest rate marketization reforms, enhancing the framework for market-based interest rate regulation, and promoting a decline in overall financing costs in society [1][2] - The 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained stable at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50% since May 2025, following a 10 basis point reduction [1][2] - The average weighted interest rate for new corporate loans in August was approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, while the average for new personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, down about 25 basis points year-on-year [2] Group 2 - The bond market has experienced significant fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield recently exceeding 1.8%, indicating market expectations for the PBOC to resume government bond trading operations [2] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks was 1.42%, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, with large commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, and private banks reporting net interest margins of 1.31%, 1.55%, and 3.91% respectively [2] - There is an expectation that the PBOC may implement another round of interest rate cuts in Q4, which could lead to further declines in LPR quotes and lower loan rates for businesses and residents [3][4] Group 3 - The current low inflation levels provide ample space for the PBOC to adopt a moderately loose monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts, without immediate concerns about high inflation [4] - The anticipated downward adjustment of the 5-year LPR could significantly reduce residential mortgage rates, stimulating housing demand and reversing market expectations [4]