音乐圈的十字路口

Core Insights - The global music market, after ten years of growth, is experiencing stagnation, with significant declines in major markets such as the US, UK, Germany, France, and South Korea in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [1][3][4] Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the US recorded a growth of only 0.9%, a stark contrast to the 4% growth in the same period of 2024. The annual growth for 2024 was adjusted to 2.7% [3][4] - Other major markets also showed reduced growth: the UK at 5.2% (down from 7.9%), Germany at 1.4% (down from 7.6%), and France at 3.4% (down from 5.9%) [4][5] - South Korea's music market has not published overall revenue data, but significant declines were noted in album sales and streaming [4][5] Streaming and Consumption Trends - The slowdown in streaming growth is a critical factor contributing to the stagnation of the music market. Streaming was the primary driver of growth over the past decade, but its expansion has now plateaued [6][9] - In the US, the 0.9% growth in the first half of 2025 was primarily supported by streaming revenue, which increased by 2.3%, while other music consumption formats like vinyl and CDs saw declines [9][10] Impact of Major Artists - The absence of major artists, such as Taylor Swift, who had a significant impact on the market in previous years, is believed to have contributed to the current downturn. Her upcoming album is seen as a potential catalyst for market recovery [11] - The demand for "super IPs" is evident, with calls for the return of popular groups like BLACKPINK and BTS in South Korea to rejuvenate the market [11] Future Directions - The music industry is at a crossroads, needing to rethink its strategies in light of the current stagnation. Companies like Spotify are making significant changes to enhance user engagement and explore new revenue models [13][15] - The concept of "super fan economy" is gaining traction, with major labels exploring new subscription models and community engagement strategies to deepen consumer connections with artists [18][21]