美国经济不需要激进降息？大摩：美联储或给市场泼冷水

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market indices reached new historical highs, driven by market adaptation to White House policy uncertainties and ongoing optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has risen 33.75% since its low in April, with a year-to-date increase of 13.3% [2] - The Federal Reserve initiated a new round of interest rate cuts, which is providing support to the market [3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley's strategy team, led by Mike Wilson, warns that if the Fed's rate cuts do not meet investor expectations, it could lead to market volatility [3] - Wilson believes the U.S. economy may not require aggressive rate cuts, suggesting that the current economic transition is moving towards an early recovery phase [4] - There are signs of pent-up demand in sectors that have experienced weak growth over the past few years, including real estate, short-cycle industries, consumer goods, transportation, and commodities [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - The Fed's current "easing shift" differs from conventional paths in past economic cycles, as the labor market has not deteriorated to a level necessitating significant rate cuts, and inflation remains above the 2% target [4] - There is a contradiction between the Fed's policy response and the market's demand for rapid rate cuts, posing short-term risks to the stock market [4] Group 4: Liquidity Concerns - The market faces risks if the Fed recognizes the economic shift from "rolling recession to recovery" and determines that large-scale rate cuts are unnecessary, which could disappoint the market [5] - Liquidity is gradually tightening as the Fed continues quantitative tightening while the U.S. Treasury issues a large volume of bonds [5] - Signs of liquidity pressure may first appear in the spread between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the federal funds rate, with the Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE index currently at 72.5, close to a four-year low [5]