大宗商品：美联储降息后走势分化，后市逻辑待切换

Core Viewpoint - The conclusion of the "Super Central Bank Week" has led to a shift in macro trading logic, with the Federal Reserve's expected 25 basis point rate cut prompting adjustments in major asset pricing and the emergence of new trading strategies [1] Market Performance - Global stock markets exhibited mixed results, with U.S. stocks initially declining before reaching new highs, while A-shares experienced a pullback after a rally [1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) saw a slight increase, while the VIX index, indicating market volatility, rose significantly [1] - U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, showcasing varied performances among non-U.S. currencies [1] Commodity Trends - Commodity price movements were divergent, with gold experiencing profit-taking and high volatility, while copper prices fell sharply, negatively impacting the non-ferrous sector [1] - Oil prices remained weak, contributing to a notable decline in the CRB index for the week [1] - In the domestic market, a "de-involution" trend led to strong gains in black commodities, particularly coking coal and coke, with glass and soda ash also rising [1] Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic bond market showed mixed results, with forward contracts under pressure, and stock indices displaying divergence, particularly with growth stocks showing resilience while value stocks fell sharply [1] - The Wind commodity index recorded a weekly change of -0.19%, with 4 sectors rising and 6 sectors declining [1] - The overall commodity market exhibited a pattern of internal strength and external weakness, with precious metals retreating and non-ferrous metals declining significantly, while coal, coke, steel, and non-metallic building materials surged due to the de-involution trend [1] Future Outlook - As the rate cut process is halfway paused before a potential restart, global macro trading logic is expected to gradually shift [1] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut is anticipated to influence commodities through multiple channels, with overall positive effects but varying impacts across different commodities [1] - Future commodity price trends are likely to diverge, reflecting different pricing and trading logic [1]