320亿美元或将灰飞烟灭！越南经济大地震！成美国关税头号靶子！

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam has become the sixth largest exporter to the U.S., with exports valued at $136.5 billion, primarily from factories operated by U.S. companies and foreign multinationals [1] Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The imposition of a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods could lead to a long-term decline in exports to the U.S. by over $25 billion, nearly one-fifth of Vietnam's total exports to the U.S. [1] - Vietnam's exports to the U.S. decreased by 2% in August compared to July, with a notable 5.5% drop in footwear exports, despite being the second-largest global supplier of shoes [2] - The World Bank has downgraded Vietnam's economic growth forecast following the implementation of U.S. tariffs [2] Group 2: Regional Comparisons - Vietnam's potential export decline to the U.S. is estimated at 19.2%, which is nearly double the average expected decline of 9.7% for Southeast Asia [3] - Other Southeast Asian countries are also expected to see declines, with Thailand at 12.7%, Malaysia at 10.4%, and Indonesia at 6.4% [3] Group 3: Economic Consequences - The decline in exports could result in a GDP reduction of approximately 5% for Vietnam [3] - The full impact of the tariffs may take years to manifest, but factors such as exporters absorbing some costs and Vietnam diversifying its export markets could mitigate the effects [3] Group 4: Additional Considerations - The estimates from the United Nations Development Programme assume that tariffs will be fully passed on to U.S. consumers, which has not yet occurred [5] - Potential additional tariffs on foreign components in exported goods could have devastating effects, as Vietnam's exports heavily rely on Chinese supply chains [6] - Current exemptions on tariffs for consumer electronics, which account for about 28% of Vietnam's exports to the U.S., are not included in the estimates, but even with these exemptions, exports could still decrease by $18 billion [6]