美联储降息25BP：商品走势分化，后市交易逻辑待切换

Core Viewpoint - The recent "Super Central Bank Week" concluded with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points, prompting other central banks to follow suit, leading to a recalibration of asset pricing and new trading logic in the market [1] Market Performance - Global stock markets exhibited mixed results, with U.S. stocks initially declining but later reaching new highs, while A-shares experienced a pullback after a rise [1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) saw a slight increase, while the volatility index (VIX) rose, indicating market uncertainty [1] - U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, showcasing volatility in non-U.S. currencies [1] Commodity Market Trends - Commodity prices displayed divergence, with gold experiencing high volatility, copper prices dropping significantly, and oil prices remaining weak, leading to a weekly decline in the CRB index [1] - In the domestic market, a trend against "involution" boosted black commodities, particularly coking coal and coke, while glass and soda ash also saw gains [1] - The domestic bond market showed mixed results, with stock indices reflecting varied performances [1] Commodity Sector Analysis - The Wind Commodity Index reported a weekly change of -0.19%, with 4 out of 10 sectors gaining and 6 sectors declining, indicating a pattern of strength domestically but weakness externally [1] - Precious metals faced a correction, and the significant drop in non-ferrous metals negatively impacted overall commodity performance, while coal, steel, and non-metallic building materials sectors surged [1] - Agricultural products led the decline among commodity sectors [1] Future Outlook - The resumption of the interest rate cut process is expected to shift global macro trading logic, with the Fed's rate cut likely to influence commodity prices through various channels [1] - Generally, rate cuts enhance the attractiveness of gold and other commodities, as a weaker dollar supports commodity prices and liquidity injections boost expectations [1] - The phenomenon of "buying the expectation, selling the fact" is noted, with gold experiencing a rise followed by a pullback post-rate cut, suggesting that future commodity trends may diverge [1]