朱鹤新表态！外汇市场交易理性有序，应对外部风险挑战的底气更足

Core Insights - The press conference highlighted the achievements of China's financial sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the effective coordination of development and security in the foreign exchange sector [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Developments - The international balance of payments has remained stable, with a current account surplus to GDP ratio maintained within a reasonable range, reflecting resilience in foreign trade and investment [3]. - By the end of July, foreign institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits, indicating active cross-border investment [3]. - The foreign exchange service environment has improved significantly, with the number of enterprises able to conduct business with just instructions increasing more than fivefold since the end of 2020 [3]. Group 2: Foreign Exchange Reserves and Market Stability - Foreign exchange reserves have remained stable above 3 trillion USD, exceeding 3.2 trillion USD for the past two years, serving as a crucial stabilizer for the national economy [4]. - The cross-border payment and receipt scale is projected to reach 14 trillion USD in 2024, a 64% increase from 2020, with an average annual growth rate 8 percentage points higher than the previous five-year period [4][5]. - The trading volume in the foreign exchange market is expected to reach 41 trillion USD in 2024, a 37% increase from 2020, indicating a well-developed market capable of accommodating various transactions [5]. Group 3: Currency and Risk Management - The flexibility of the RMB exchange rate has increased, with the hedging ratio for enterprises rising from 17% in 2020 to around 30%, and the RMB's share in cross-border trade increasing from 16% to nearly 30% [5]. - The macro-prudential management framework for the foreign exchange market is being continuously improved, enhancing the ability to respond to external risks [5]. - Future stability of the RMB will largely depend on the performance of the USD and domestic macroeconomic policies, with ongoing growth policies expected to be a key factor in stabilizing the exchange rate [6].