如何看四季度权益市场走势？美联储降息后，大类资产布局如何调整？

Group 1: Market Overview - The market has shown good performance since Q3 2025, with notable sector differentiation [3][4] - Key sectors performing well include technology, pharmaceuticals, new energy, and certain cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals, attributed to their strong fundamentals [4][6] - High dividend sectors like finance and banking have underperformed due to declining dividend yields impacting stock momentum, although they remain good absolute return options [5] Group 2: A-Share Outlook - The outlook for A-shares remains positive for Q4 2025 and 2026, as the Chinese economy is gradually recovering from previous pressures [6][8] - Sectors such as AI-driven technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption are showing significant market movements, indicating improving fundamentals [6][8] - Cyclical and consumer sectors, while currently lagging, are expected to recover as the economy improves, making them attractive for future investment [7][8] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Drivers - The Hong Kong market has benefited from three main factors: valuation recovery, confidence restoration, and a shift in global monetary policy [11][12] - Valuation recovery is driven by improved earnings from major internet companies, while confidence has been bolstered by technological advancements and successful innovations [12] - The shift in global monetary policy, particularly the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to favor emerging markets, including Hong Kong [12][20] Group 4: Sector Focus in Hong Kong - Future investment opportunities in Hong Kong will focus on technology, internet, pharmaceuticals, and consumer sectors [14] - The internet sector is expected to see improved profitability and attractiveness due to reduced policy uncertainties and increased foreign investment [14] - Emerging consumer trends in areas like trendy products, new tea drinks, and beauty care are projected to maintain high growth rates, making them appealing investment targets [14] Group 5: Economic and Policy Considerations - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates further, potentially bringing the federal funds rate down to 3% to 3.5% [20] - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields may have room to decline, while long-term yields face upward pressure due to uncertainties and fiscal deficits [21] - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are expected to show strong growth, driven by local demand and improved fiscal conditions, making them attractive for investment [22]