Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-22 09:00Group 1 - UBS reports that following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's adjustment of the overnight discount rate, Hong Kong banks have lowered the best lending rate by 12.5 basis points to 5.125% from 5.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The new mortgage rate for newly built residential properties will decrease from 3.5% to 3.375%. Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve will cumulatively cut rates by 142 basis points by December 2026 [1] - UBS anticipates that the ongoing rate cuts will support short-term residential transaction volumes, benefiting developers and highly leveraged companies such as Sino Land (00083), Henderson Land (00012), Hang Lung Properties (00101), and Kerry Properties (00683) [1] Group 2 - In the first eight months of 2025, private residential transaction volumes have increased by 13% to 15%. The projected total for 2025 is 19,400 transactions for new properties and 38,000 for second-hand properties, comparable to levels seen in 2018-2019 [2] - Despite the increase in transaction volumes, property prices remain weak, with the CCL index remaining stable throughout the year due to ample short-term supply. Developers' higher pricing strategies have met with low buyer acceptance [2] - UBS expects property prices to remain stable in 2025, with a potential moderate recovery of 0% to 5% in 2026 after inventory is absorbed [2] Group 3 - Among developers, UBS favors Sino Land, Henderson Land, and Kerry Properties for their expected performance, while also showing preference for Hang Lung Properties due to reduced interest expenses from declining HIBOR [3] - UBS has raised the target price for Sino Land by 14% to HKD 11.2, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting a narrowing discount to net asset value from 40% to 35% [3] - The current dividend yield for Sino Land is 5.8%, similar to that of Hang Lung Properties, with UBS noting that the market has not fully recognized its HKD 49.5 billion cash advantage, which supports dividends and high-profit land acquisitions [3]