盘面加速分化！量化工具又有新信号出来了

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing signs of volatility and a slight afternoon rally, influenced by the brokerage index's performance. The central bank's recent meeting focused on the long-term development of the financial industry rather than immediate policy changes, leading to speculation about potential interest rate cuts in line with the Federal Reserve's actions. However, the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][2][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a mixed performance, with a notable increase in the brokerage index by 1.15%. The market sentiment has been fluctuating, with expectations of a possible interest rate cut around late October or early November due to economic conditions [1][2]. - The market has seen a significant emotional shift, with the index experiencing a steady rise until it reached a near ten-year high, followed by a period of consolidation without effectively breaking through the 3900-point level [2][4]. Investor Behavior - Recent data indicates a trend of new retail investors entering the market, with 2.64 million new individual accounts opened in August, a 35% increase from July. However, this figure is still below the historical highs seen in 2015 [4][7]. - There is a notable trend of household deposits shifting, with a decrease of 600 billion yuan in household deposits year-on-year in August, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 550 billion yuan. This reflects ongoing changes in deposit behavior among residents [7][10]. Market Sentiment - Despite concerns about the high level of the index around 3800 points, the overall market sentiment does not appear to be overheated, suggesting that there is still room for further emotional expansion [10]. - The market is currently waiting for a decisive direction, with frequent signals for portfolio adjustments in high-positioned sectors due to significant fluctuations [11][18]. Sector Trends - The recent performance of various indices indicates a trend towards specific sectors, with the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index rising by 3.38% following its inclusion in a selected broad-based index [11][13]. - The stock-bond yield spread currently stands at 5.28%, indicating a relatively favorable market condition for equities compared to historical averages [18].