本周前瞻：美国PCE指数跟进降息后续行情

Core Insights - This week, the market will experience a series of important data releases and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, with a particular focus on the U.S. August Core PCE Price Index, which will directly influence the Fed's interest rate path for the remainder of the year [1][13]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Following last week's Federal Reserve decision, officials will be making public speeches, with key figures like New York Fed President Williams and St. Louis Fed President Bullard discussing the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy [3]. - The U.S. August Core PCE Price Index is expected to maintain a growth rate around 3%, which would not alter expectations for two rate cuts by the end of the year [11]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Consumer Confidence - On Tuesday, various countries will release their September Manufacturing PMI preliminary values, with the Eurozone's August Manufacturing PMI revised up to 50.7, indicating potential economic expansion [4]. - The Eurozone's September Consumer Confidence Index is anticipated to remain negative but may show signs of improvement [3]. Group 3: International Economic Data - On Wednesday, Australia's August CPI is expected to remain stable, influencing future interest rate expectations, with a potential rate cut from 3.60% to 3.35% by November [8]. - Germany's September IFO Business Climate Index is projected to show a rebound for the seventh consecutive month [8]. Group 4: Additional Economic Releases - The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain its interest rate at zero during its upcoming decision, following three months of stable inflation [9]. - The U.S. second-quarter GDP final value is projected at an annualized rate of 3.3%, driven by strong consumer spending and increased investment in AI, which may lead to further revisions [11].