3800点守卫战暗藏玄机：主力节前暗中布局，节后行情或超预期

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a slight increase of 0.07%, indicating a fierce battle between bulls and bears around the critical 3800-point level [1][3] - The market experienced a significant drop in trading volume, with a total turnover of 1.36 trillion yuan, down 155.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day, suggesting a potential major directional shift is brewing [3][4] Technical Analysis - The 3800-point level has become a focal point for both bulls and bears, with the index testing this level multiple times but being quickly supported by mysterious funds [4][6] - The Shenzhen Component Index shows signs of a clear divergence, indicating a weakening upward momentum, with small candlestick patterns appearing for five out of the last seven trading days [6][7] - The market is currently in a sideways consolidation phase, having fluctuated within a narrow range for seven consecutive trading days [4][6] Sector Performance - There is a notable divergence in sector performance, with strong inflows into sectors like smart wearables, electronics, and consumer electronics, while sectors such as film, agricultural chemicals, and aquaculture are underperforming [3][6] - The financial sector has already undergone a round of adjustments, with bank stocks experiencing a decline of over 10% since mid-July [7] Economic Indicators - The retail sales of consumer goods in August grew by 3.4% year-on-year, indicating some improvement potential, although effective demand remains insufficient [7] - The real estate market continues to show weakness, with a cumulative year-on-year decline in commodity housing sales area of 4.7% from January to August 2025 [9] Investment Sentiment - Market sentiment indicators reflect a cautious attitude, with the current sentiment score below 40, suggesting limited strength and sustainability for any technical rebounds [7] - Historical data indicates that the probability of market gains post-National Day is over 60%, particularly in sectors like computing, communications, and electronics [10] Future Outlook - The current market is in the second phase of a bull market, driven by factors that have not changed, with a focus on low penetration sectors such as solid-state batteries and AI computing [10][12] - The upcoming National Day holiday typically leads to a contraction in financing activities, with a pattern of cautious behavior before the holiday and increased activity afterward [9][12]