中国大规模减持美债，单月抛售超1800亿，央行连买黄金稳美元风险

Core Insights - A global asset reshaping is occurring, with a notable decline in the allocation of dollar assets despite the emphasis on stable foreign exchange reserves [2] - Concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal health and the long-term credibility of the dollar are growing due to potential tax reforms and trade tariffs under the Trump administration [2] - The U.S. federal debt is nearing dangerous levels, raising alarms about future interest burdens and policy constraints [2] Group 1: Market Reactions - Traders are engaging in discussions about the selling of European long-term bonds and the contrasting behavior of Japan and the UK, which increased their holdings in U.S. Treasuries [4][5] - The divergence in asset allocation strategies among countries indicates a lack of uniformity in foreign investment behavior, with China actively adjusting its asset structure for long-term resilience [5] Group 2: Gold as an Alternative - China has been increasing its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August, reflecting a strategic shift towards diversifying foreign exchange reserves [5][7] - The global central banks collectively increased their gold reserves by 166 tons in Q2, marking a historical high, indicating a broader trend towards gold accumulation as a hedge against potential crises [7] Group 3: Strategic Asset Allocation - The shift from U.S. dollar assets to gold is seen as a gradual rebalancing rather than a complete decoupling, aimed at enhancing reserve flexibility [11][14] - The adjustments in asset allocation are influenced by both strategic policy intentions and market-driven risk aversion, highlighting a complex interplay of factors shaping current asset flows [14][16] Group 4: Future Implications - The ongoing adjustments in asset allocation are not revolutionary but represent an evolution towards a more resilient foreign exchange reserve structure [16][18] - The effectiveness of this strategy in mitigating risks associated with dollar volatility and geopolitical tensions remains uncertain, with market sentiment often diverging from rational decision-making [18]