美联储理事米兰：中性利率料2.5%，年内应再降息125bp，或还将投反对票

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for significant interest rate cuts in the coming months to protect the U.S. labor market, arguing that current rates are too high [1][2]. Group 1: Neutral Interest Rate - Miran estimates the neutral interest rate at approximately 2.5%, which is notably lower than the Federal Reserve officials' median forecast of 3% [2]. - He suggests that the neutral interest rate has been overestimated in the past and is currently under downward pressure due to factors like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and tax policies [1][2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Rate Cuts - Miran believes that maintaining short-term rates about 2 percentage points above the appropriate level could lead to unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment [2]. - He opposed the Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower rates by only 0.25 percentage points, advocating instead for a 0.5 percentage point cut [2]. - Miran hopes for an additional 1.25 percentage points reduction in the remaining two FOMC meetings of the year, contrasting with the median forecast of a 0.5 percentage point cut from other officials [2]. Group 3: Inflation Target and Policy Independence - Miran expressed potential support for abandoning the precise 2% inflation target, emphasizing that any adjustment should occur only after achieving and maintaining that target for a period [3]. - He stated that his call for significant rate cuts is not a panic response but a necessary measure to mitigate rising risks associated with prolonged high rates [3]. - Miran's stance aligns with President Trump's requests for aggressive rate cuts, yet he maintains a position of independence within the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Initial reactions to Miran's speech have been skeptical, with observers questioning the assertion that current monetary policy is significantly tight given the still accommodative financial environment and near-full employment [4].